Ethereum OI evaporated 10 billion USD, a wave of ETF withdrawals is coming, what will happen to the ETH trend?

Ethereum (ETH) has experienced severe market fluctuations recently, retreating from a high of $3,900, with open interest (OI) evaporating by $10 billion within ten days, and an unprecedented single-day capital outflow from ETFs. This series of capital movements has led investors to follow whether ETH is at a new turning point between bull and bear markets.

$10 billion in open contracts evaporated, market leverage risk cools down

After ETH reached a high of $3,900, the price experienced a pullback of about 10%, flushing out some weak bulls and effectively cooling down overheated funds. In just ten days, over $10 billion in open contracts disappeared, indicating a significant reduction in leverage risk. Meanwhile, for several consecutive days, profits of over $1 billion were realized, suggesting that the market sell-off was primarily for profit-taking rather than panic selling.

ETF withdrawal wave strikes, institutional fund flow shifts

According to SoSoValue data, ETH ETF saw outflows exceeding 500 million USD in a single day, setting a new historical record, indicating that institutional funds are withdrawing in large amounts. Some large asset management companies have also recently transferred a significant amount of ETH to custodial platforms, suspected of preparing to sell off, which is a typical operation for institutional profit-taking. At the same time, there are still long-term funds choosing to accumulate at lower prices, reflecting an increase in market divergence.

Whale Reducing Holdings and Bullish Preference, Market Sentiment Divergence

In the past 30 days, the number of whale addresses holding a large amount of ETH has decreased by 164, indicating that some large holders have chosen to take profits or adopt a wait-and-see approach. Nevertheless, the market's bullish positions remain at high levels, suggesting that retail investors and some institutions are still leaning towards a bullish outlook. This divergence between bulls and bears creates uncertainty in the short-term trend of ETH.

Technical Analysis and Market Outlook: Can ETH Hold Key Support?

The recent 10% drop in ETH is still debated as to whether it is merely a "healthy reset." The $3,900 level has become a clear resistance point, and if spot demand does not increase, the rebound momentum could be limited. If capital continues to flow out and whales keep reducing their positions, there could be significant liquidation pressure on ETH around the $3,500 mark. Despite ETH rebounding nearly 4% from its low this week, the road to recovery remains challenging.

Conclusion

Ethereum is at a critical moment of intense tug-of-war between bulls and bears. Open contracts have significantly evaporated, ETF withdrawals and whale reductions have created clear short-term pressure. However, institutions are still buying the dip and bullish sentiment remains strong. Whether ETH can hold the $3,500 support in the future will depend on capital flow and market confidence. Investors need to closely follow capital dynamics and technical signals, and respond cautiously to future volatility.