The market still believes that there is more than an 80% chance of a rate cut in September. In fact, there is an interesting phenomenon in the market right now: regardless of economic data or whether it exceeds expectations, everyone thinks that the probability of a rate cut in September is very high. But we all know that it ultimately depends on Powell's attitude. If the market's expectations differ from Powell's ideas, according to past experience, the market has never won an opportunity. So everyone should pay attention to the global Central Bank annual meeting on Thursday, as it may be Powell's most important formal statement before the rate decision in mid-September. At that time, whether any messages are released or if there is a softening of attitude will be quite critical.


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