#美联储利率政策# Seeing the news about the potential Fed chair candidates supporting significant interest rate cuts reminds me of the situation in the 1970s. At that time, faced with stagflation pressures, the Fed also tried to stimulate the economy through aggressive rate cuts. However, the result was counterproductive and led to a more severe inflation spiral.

David Zervos today clearly stands on a "dovish" position, advocating for aggressive easing. He believes that the current monetary policy is too tight and that significant interest rate cuts are needed to prevent a deterioration in the job market. This viewpoint does have its merits, but it also carries risks.

History tells us that monetary policy needs to maintain balance. Excessive easing can lead to uncontrollable inflation, while excessive tightening may stifle economic growth. Both Burns in the 1970s and Volcker in the 1980s have left us with valuable lessons.

In the current context of persistent inflationary pressure, the Fed needs to act cautiously. Blindly cutting interest rates may repeat past mistakes, but continuing to raise rates could also lead to a recession. The key is to find a balance between stabilizing prices and maintaining growth.

Overall, I believe the Fed should maintain its composure and adopt a gradual policy adjustment. After all, the economic cycle always has its ups and downs; the key is to learn from historical lessons and avoid major policy errors. For investors, it is also important to remain vigilant to potential policy shifts and adjust strategies in a timely manner.