#美7月PPI年率高于预期#

PPI exceeds expectations, does the Federal Reserve's rate cut script need to change?
The U.S. July PPI year-on-year rate was higher than expected, just like the temperature suddenly rising by two degrees in summer, causing the Federal Reserve's planned "rate cut ice cream" to melt halfway instantly. PPI is an inflation signal from the production side, and its higher-than-expected reading means that business costs are still rising. This heat will ultimately be transmitted to the CPI, further scorching consumers' wallets.
The market was originally fantasizing about an interest rate cut in September, but now it's better: the Fed's expression might be "let's put down the scissors first and see where the inflation fire burns." The interest rate futures market reacted immediately, cutting the probability of a rate cut, and both the bond and stock markets began to reprice.
Interestingly, the driving force behind the rise in PPI this time partly comes from the rebound in energy and certain manufacturing sectors. This complicates policy-making — interest rate hikes have limited impact on energy supply and demand, yet they may further strain other areas of the economy.
So, don't be misled by the superficial "one piece of data"; this is actually a pebble on the monetary policy roadmap that may force the Federal Reserve to take a detour, or even delay the departure time of the interest rate cut convoy. Investors would be wise to fasten their seatbelts and not fall asleep during the turn.