2024 U.S. Election: Analysis of Potential Impacts on Financial Markets

The 2024 U.S. presidential election is about to enter its final stage, and the results remain unpredictable. Notably, cryptocurrencies have become a new focal point in this election battle. Candidates' statements and positions continuously influence the price fluctuations of digital assets like Bitcoin. Currently, Bitcoin's price is fluctuating around $70,000, and the direction of the election may become a key factor in driving its breakthrough.

Recently, the market has begun to place early bets on the victory of a certain candidate. This expectation has manifested in various sectors including the stock market, bond market, precious metals, and cryptocurrencies. Over the past month, Bitcoin's trend has shown a high degree of synchronization with the candidate's election situation. Moving forward, the election dynamics in seven key states will become a decisive factor influencing the market.

From Wall Street to Silicon Valley, traders are formulating investment strategies based on this expectation, shifting from traditional finance to the digital currency sector. However, political elections are full of uncertainties, and any unexpected events could trigger significant market fluctuations. Investors need to be prepared for various possibilities in advance.

If a certain candidate wins, the traditional financial market may experience the following changes:

1. Monetary Policy: It is expected to maintain a relatively loose liquidity environment, which is beneficial for the stock market and other risk assets, especially in the industrial and traditional energy sectors; U.S. Treasury yields may trend upwards.

2. Tax policy: Plans to lower domestic corporate tax rates while increasing tariffs on imports. This trend will benefit the prices of bulk commodities such as copper and oil, and will also support the development of technology companies.

3. International Relations: Committed to quickly ending certain international conflicts, but may maintain involvement in the Middle East. These adjustments in foreign policy could affect the trends of defense stocks, but overall may bring a more stable environment to the market.

In terms of the digital currency market:

1. Bitcoin may lead the breakthrough: Due to its deep binding with the candidate's image, coupled with several previous statements of support, such as the promise to include it in national reserves and to change the head of the regulatory agency, these proposals are expected to gradually come to fruition. Considering that the candidate is known for "keeping promises," Bitcoin is likely to lead to a new high.

2. Certain popular tokens may seize opportunities: tokens closely related to the candidate that have long-term support from business people may return to market hotspots.

3. Some emerging projects may drive the DeFi ecosystem: Financial projects related to candidate families may become the new focus of the market, bringing not only upward opportunities for the project but also potentially driving the prosperity of the entire DeFi ecosystem, thereby pushing up the price of Ethereum.

Although a certain candidate currently has a high probability of winning, unexpected events during the election process cannot be ignored. According to the latest data from a prediction market, this candidate's support rate is 56.2%, which is a drop from last week's peak of 65%, and the election situation remains tense. If another candidate ultimately wins, the market expectations will be shattered, potentially causing a significant reversal.

If another candidate wins, the traditional financial markets may see the following changes:

1. Tax policy: Advocates for increasing taxes on the wealthy and large corporations, planning to raise the corporate income tax rate from 21% to 35%, and raising funds for the treasury through methods such as taxing financial transactions. These policies may impact the overall profitability of businesses but benefit areas that rely on fiscal support.

2. Fiscal expenditure: Support for universal healthcare plans, expansion of social welfare spending, and promotion of "care economy" development will drive related sectors such as healthcare and social services. At the same time, a large-scale climate plan is proposed, which will significantly benefit the new energy industry.

3. Overall market direction: After the market expectations are broken, the stock market may experience significant fluctuations. Before the new government policies become clearer and investors readjust their expectations, the market needs time to find a new direction.

In the digital currency market:

1. Regulatory Situation: A strong regulatory approach may continue. The policies of regulatory agencies are likely to maintain a tough stance, and the overall law enforcement intensity is expected to remain unchanged, which will affect the institutionalization process of cryptocurrencies.

2. Market Trend: As the current market has already priced in the victory of another candidate, if expectations fail, Bitcoin may face significant corrections. According to a certain research institution's predictions, it may drop by 10% by the end of the year. The market needs to establish a new valuation logic.

3. Delaying institutional entry: The candidate has a rather vague attitude towards cryptocurrencies. Although they express support for the development of digital assets to maintain national competitiveness, they lack specific policy details. This uncertainty may affect investor confidence and delay the pace of institutional entry.

Regardless of the election results, investors need to remain calm, closely monitor the implementation of policies and changes in market expectations, seize opportunities wisely while managing risks effectively, and avoid being overly influenced by short-term market emotions.