After Bitcoin hits a new high, when will alts迎来 pump?

Bitcoin has broken through the historical high of $123,000, but the altcoin market seems to be still observing. By analyzing the past three Bitcoin breakout trends, we can discover some interesting patterns that may provide some references for the current market trend.

Looking back at the Bitcoin breakout trend since mid-2023, we found that each breakout has triggered a collective rebound of alts.

1. 30,000 to 44,000 dollars
2. 45,000 to 71,000 US dollars $71,000 to $105,000

After these breakthroughs, altcoins usually experience an explosion period of 3-5 weeks, followed by Bitcoin entering a consolidation phase, regaining its market dominance, and the rise of altcoins subsequently tapering off.

Currently, we seem to be in a similar situation: Bitcoin has risen to $123,000 after breaking through the resistance level of $107,000, and is expected to challenge the $150,000 mark. If historical patterns repeat, we may be at the starting point of a new altcoin pump cycle.

However, it is important to note that this may not be a prolonged altcoin frenzy lasting several months, but rather a short-term sprint. Bitcoin's market dominance has not yet broken key levels, so this may not be a full altcoin season. However, if Bitcoin's dominance stops rising, altcoins may still continue to pump, similar to the situations in the last two market cycles.

Among mainstream altcoins, Ethereum, Solana, and XRP have shown significant divergence in their trends. Ethereum lagged behind Bitcoin at the end of 2023, but the lows of each subsequent pullback have been gradually rising. Solana had a strong performance early on, but its momentum seems to have weakened at present. XRP initially performed weakly, but experienced a explosive pump after last year's U.S. elections.

Currently, payment tokens have been launched first, including some "bank tokens" that meet the ISO20022 standard. Meanwhile, some large-cap coins that have yet to launch are worth paying attention to, such as BNB, LINK, ADA, TRX, and DOGE. These may become the core targets of the next round of capital rotation.

If Solana begins to attract funding, its ecosystem tokens are also worth paying attention to. At the same time, Layer 1 clones like Sui, Aptos, and AVAX may also welcome opportunities. In addition, tokens like TAO and PEPE, which performed well in 2023, are also worth noting as they demonstrated strong narrative abilities during Bitcoin's rise.

For the current trading strategy, it is recommended:

1. Focus on blue-chip tokens
2. Look for coins that have not yet launched
3. Switch to strong narratives when leading projects launch
4. Temporarily avoid small-cap coins to control risks

Capital rotation is key, and one must not blindly chase rises. Alts may welcome a strong cycle of 1 to 2 months, but historical experience reminds us to take profits when we can and not be overly greedy. If Bitcoin breaks through $150,000, the top 20 coins by market cap may collectively rise, and some assets may see significant catch-up rallies.

Maintain rational operations, hold strong tokens, and decisively abandon stagnating assets. Keep a cautiously optimistic attitude and closely monitor Bitcoin's market dominance and the activities of BTC trading pairs. Although the current situation may not be as frenzied as the cycles of 2017 or 2021, it is still a relatively reliable investment window. Small-cap coins will eventually find opportunities, but patience is required to wait for the right timing.