This Week’s Macro Signals: A Turning Point for Markets?

The week started hot in macroeconomics, with major developments that could affect global trades and financial markets all across the world. Moving ahead, investors will get to see the first look at important inflation metrics that will give a better feel of what’s to come regarding interest rates

Monday

President Trump announced on Monday a set of new tariffs targeting several countries across the globe. The EU and Mexico were hit with 30% tariffs on imports, while Canada got an even harsher 35% tariff on imported goods

These tariff rates are expected to go live by August 1st, unless new deals are struck between the White House and other nations

Tuesday

On Tuesday, we’ll take a look at one of the most important inflation metrics released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics

On this date, the Consumer Price Index report (CPI) for June will provide us with an up-to-date metric on consumer prices, and whether inflation is orbiting the Fed’s 2% goal. CPI YoY is expected to see a 0.2% hike to 2.6% according to forecasts. Monthly CPI is also expected to grow by the same margin to 0.3%

Talks regarding a change in stance by the Fed regarding interest rates have already started to gain momentum last week, and a better-than-expected or even ‘as expected’ CPI could corroborate the expectations of an interest rate cut by September

Wednesday

Only a day later, the Department of Labor will release June’s Producer Price Index (PPI), which covers the change in prices in the manufacturing industry. Once again, analysts are pricing in a 0.2% hike in the PPI, reflecting expectations of higher spending in that sector

Thursday

The European CPI is expected to remain at a 2.0% rate on a year-over-year level, while the monthly CPI for June is expected to see a growth of 0.3%. Meanwhile, in the U.S., an update on jobless claims and retail sales could also have an impact on financial markets

Moreover, the SEC is expected to hold a vote on July 17, with rumours brewing that the commission could finally decide to drop the Ripple case

Finally, an update on the prices of exports and imports in America will give us an update of how much Trump’s tariff policy is affecting trade flows.

Friday

Not a lot of huge market movers on Friday. However, the Atlanta Fed GDPNow will share its prediction for the second quarter GDP. Earlier in the year, this metric correctly predicted a retraction in Q1

The GDPNow is now projecting 2.6% real GDP growth for Q2 2025, according to its latest update on July 9

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