Why do most Meme Token participants ultimately incur losses?

A few weeks ago, I wrote an article discussing the importance of investment theses; however, reality seems to indicate that many people not only lack investment theses but, worse, almost everyone is losing money. For investors experiencing the cryptocurrency cycle for the first time, this is akin to stepping into a massive casino. If one tries to go against the house, failure is almost a certain outcome. The recent emergence of various popular Meme Tokens, such as $TRUMP, $LIBRA, $JAILSTOOL, and $CAR, is merely superficial; the actual situation is much more complex than it appears on the surface.

I must emphasize again: if you treat cryptocurrency as a casino, it will treat you as a gambler.

In traditional casinos, only about one in five players profit from slot machines. This means that the vast majority of participants are at a loss - even so-called "winners" find it difficult to claim profit if you account for their losses before winning. Suppose you invest in a series of Meme Tokens and after several failures, you finally achieve a big win. What happens then? You might think you are unique and that you've found the winning formula. But in reality, this kind of victory is often just a coincidence, and if you continue to participate, you will eventually be consumed by the market.

Casinos attract customers with free buffets and dreams of financial freedom, while Meme Tokens tempt investors with airdrops, the allure of thousand-fold returns, generous profits, and luxury goods.

Casinos set rules that keep players engaged until they are drained. Similarly, certain influencers on social media will pump Meme Tokens to the peak and then quickly abandon their followers.

When luck is not on your side, the casino will sell you the fantasy of "getting rich overnight." The meme Token market also has a similar phenomenon, but the probability of success is even lower.

From a mathematical perspective, the law of large numbers reveals why long-term participants are likely to incur losses. This law indicates that as the number of attempts increases, the results will approach the expected average value more closely. In gambling, this average value often signifies a loss. Casinos and betting games are designed based on this principle. The more times a person participates, the more their individual results tend to skew in favor of the house.

Here's a simple example: if you flip a coin 10 times, you might get 7 heads and 3 tails – small samples can easily show anomalies. But if you flip it 1000 times, the result will be closer to a 50/50 ratio. This logic also applies to investing in Meme Tokens. You might be fortunate to profit in one or two trades, but after numerous trades, the expected results will ultimately return to reality. And the reality is often that opinion leaders on social media become wealthier while ordinary investors bear huge losses.

So, how can one become a winner? There are mainly three ways:

1. Early entry - but it should be recognized that even the smartest investors find it difficult to grasp the best exit timing, let alone enter in a timely manner.

2. Becoming an insider trader - this is obviously unethical and illegal.

3. Becoming an opinion leader to manipulate the market - equally unethical.

In short, for most people, this is still a game of luck unless you meet the above conditions, but most people (myself included) do not possess these conditions.

Nevertheless, the negative image of the cryptocurrency industry does need to change. Meme tokens are almost impossible for ordinary investors to get rich from. If you really care about this field, you should go learn and develop a real investment strategy.

Expecting to achieve tenfold returns within a few hours is unrealistic. In contrast, achieving 2-4 times returns within 2-5 years is a reasonable goal. Understanding this, you may have the potential to profit in the crypto market. Don't be misled by short-term Meme trends.

Will meme tokens disappear? Unlikely. Have they already reached their peak? It's quite possible, and this situation may continue.

But if you want to succeed in this uncertain world of cryptocurrency, you need to be well prepared and have a deep understanding of the projects you are investing in. Only in this way can you remain undefeated in this complex and ever-changing market.