The New Normal of the Crypto Assets Market: Parallel Diverse Cycles

Recently, after communicating with industry veterans, a consensus is gradually forming: the traditional "four-year cycle" theory is no longer applicable to the current Crypto Assets market. If investors still cling to old thinking and expect simple bull market profits, they are likely to be left behind by the market.

The current Crypto Assets ecosystem has evolved into a complex system where four distinctly different cycles operate simultaneously, each with its unique rhythm, strategy, and profit logic.

Bitcoin's Super Cycle

Bitcoin has evolved from a purely speculative target to an institutional allocation asset. The massive influx of capital and new allocation logic brought by Wall Street, publicly traded companies, and ETFs have completely changed the traditional "bull-bear switching" model.

The key change is that retail chips are being massively transferred to institutional investors represented by a well-known technology company. This fundamental restructuring of the chip structure is reshaping the pricing mechanism and volatility characteristics of Bitcoin.

Retail investors face dual pressures of time cost and opportunity cost. Institutional investors have the capacity to endure a holding period of 3 to 5 years to wait for the long-term value realization of Bitcoin, while retail investors clearly struggle to possess such patience and financial strength.

There may be a slow bull market for Bitcoin lasting more than ten years in the future. The annualized return may stabilize in the range of 20-30%, but intraday volatility will significantly decrease, resembling a steadily growing tech stock. As for the ultimate price ceiling of Bitcoin, it is even difficult to predict accurately from the perspective of current retail investors.

MEME Coin's Attention Short Cycle

There is some truth to the argument that MEME coin will exist for a long time. During periods when the technical narrative lacks appeal, the MEME narrative always manages to align with market sentiment, capital flow, and attention, filling the market's "boredom vacuum."

The essence of MEME is a speculative vehicle for "instant gratification." It does not require a white paper, technical validation, or a roadmap; just a symbol that resonates is sufficient. From pet culture to political memes, from AI concept packaging to community IP incubation, MEME has evolved into a complete "emotional monetization" industrial chain.

The "short and rapid" characteristic of MEME makes it a barometer of market sentiment and a reservoir of funds. When funds are abundant, MEME is the preferred testing ground for hot money; when funds are tight, it becomes the last refuge for speculation.

However, the MEME market is evolving from "grassroots carnival" to "professional competition". The difficulty for ordinary investors to profit in this high-frequency rotation is sharply increasing. With the entry of professional teams, senior analysts, and large funds, this once "grassroots paradise" is becoming increasingly competitive.

Leap Forward in Technological Innovation Long Cycle

Innovations that truly have technical barriers, such as Layer 2 scaling, ZK technology, and AI infrastructure, typically require 2-3 years or even longer development time to see actual results. These types of projects follow the technology maturity curve, rather than the emotional cycles of the capital market, and there is an essential time misalignment between the two.

Technical projects are often criticized by the market, primarily because they are given excessively high valuations during the conceptual stage, while they are underestimated during the "valley of death" stage when the technology is actually implemented. This determines that the value release of technical projects presents a non-linear leap characteristic.

For patient investors with technical insight, positioning in promising technology projects during the "valley of death" phase may be the best strategy for achieving excess returns. However, this requires the ability to endure long waiting periods and market fluctuations, as well as the potential scrutiny and ridicule that may come.

Short Cycle of Innovative Hotspots

Before the formation of mainstream technology narratives, various small narratives rapidly alternated, from the tokenization of physical assets to decentralized physical infrastructure, from AI intelligent agents to AI infrastructure (including model context protocols and inter-agent communication), with each small hotspot possibly having only a 1-3 month window.

The fragmentation and high-frequency rotation of this narrative reflect the dual constraints of scarce market attention and the efficiency of capital seeking profit.

A typical small narrative cycle usually follows six stages: "Concept Validation → Capital Testing → Opinion Amplification → Fear of Missing Out → Overvaluation → Capital Withdrawal". To profit from this pattern, the key is to enter during the "Concept Validation" to "Capital Testing" phase and exit at the peak of "Fear of Missing Out".

The competition between narratives is essentially a struggle for attention resources. However, there is a technical relevance and conceptual progression between narratives. For example, the model context protocols and inter-agent communication standards in AI infrastructure are, in fact, a technical underlying reconstruction of the narrative of AI intelligent agents. If subsequent narratives can continue previous hotspots, form systematic upgrade linkages, and truly build a sustainable value closed loop in the process, it is very likely to give rise to a significant narrative similar to DeFi Summer.

From the current narrative pattern, the AI infrastructure layer is most likely to achieve breakthroughs first. If underlying technologies such as model context protocols, inter-agent communication standards, distributed computing power, inference, and data networks can be organically integrated, there is indeed the potential to construct a significant narrative similar to "AI Summer".

In summary, understanding the essence of these four parallel operating cycles is crucial for finding appropriate strategies within their respective rhythms. Undoubtedly, the single "four-year cycle" mindset can no longer adapt to the complexity of the current market. Adapting to the new normal of "multi-cycle parallelism" may be the key to truly profiting in this market.