Market Trends and Hotspot Analysis

1. Market Overview

1. Macro Environment

The Federal Reserve is reassessing the impact of the Trump administration on the economy and inflation. Reports indicate that the Fed Chair is dissatisfied with comments from some officials linking policy directly to Trump’s policies. The market generally expects future rate cuts to be more cautious. The uncertainty surrounding the prospect of rate cuts in 2025 has increased, and investors need to pay attention to potential economic fluctuations. According to data, the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged in January next year is 87.2%, while the probability of a 25 basis point cut is 12.8%. By March, the probability of maintaining the current rate drops to 50.6%, with the probabilities of a 25 basis point and a 50 basis point cut at 44.1% and 5.4% respectively.

2. Cryptocurrency Market

The price of Bitcoin has fallen again, reaching a low of $93,000, marking a new low in nearly a week. The funding rates on mainstream exchanges indicate a generally bearish market. Bitcoin spot ETFs saw a net outflow of $287 million on Friday, with a total net outflow of $376 million over the past week. During the market adjustment, tokens from centralized exchanges performed relatively well, while AI-related projects continued to attract funding.

2. Hot Events

1. Crypto Regulation

A well-known venture capital firm has expressed opposition to the new regulations from the U.S. Treasury, believing that it may threaten DeFi innovation. The head of regulation at the firm stated that DeFi will make financial services more convenient and efficient, but the new regulations could hinder the development of DeFi in the U.S. The firm supports lawsuits filed by multiple blockchain organizations, arguing that the new regulations exceed statutory authority, violate the Administrative Procedure Act, and may be unconstitutional. They will continue to defend the future of DeFi through legal and policy avenues.

2. Rectification of trading platforms

The Malaysian Securities Commission has taken enforcement action against a certain cryptocurrency trading platform, requiring it to immediately cease operations in the local area. The platform is accused of conducting business without appropriate registration, violating local regulations. The regulatory authority has demanded that the platform complete rectifications within the specified timeframe, including stopping the operation of its website and application, and terminating advertising activities. This move aims to protect investors' rights and ensure the platform operates in compliance.

3. Industry Trends

1. AI Agent Market Performance

Despite the overall market pullback, the AI agent sector rose against the trend, with a 24-hour increase of 1.54%. A certain AI project recently released a proposal for an update on its token economics, planning to focus on framework innovation and multi-chain integration through technological acquisitions and team consolidation in the first quarter of 2025. The market capitalization of this project once exceeded $1.5 billion, setting a historical high, reflecting the market's optimism about the prospects of AI agents.

2. Innovative Airdrop Technology

A certain project has achieved a large-scale token airdrop on the Solana network, representing a breakthrough in token distribution technology. The project utilized ZK compression technology, completing an airdrop scale that would traditionally require 55550 SOL with only 22.2 SOL, benefiting over 27 million wallets. This innovation significantly reduced airdrop costs and provides new ideas for future large-scale token distribution.